Coordination or coincidence
Any clustering tool can draw you a graph. The useful question is how much of it survives scrutiny. So here is what our own detection produces — including the part we deliberately refuse to call evidence.
The addresses
Example wallet A
0x696cba91fd…
0x696cba91fdc752171f7bb0a8e689c13212c77e03Shares 12 tokens with wallet B. We score this link 0.55 and label it low.
Example wallet B
0xa3574fe7d0…
0xa3574fe7d01b9053387f940664751b66e27b833bTwo of the twelve shared tokens were bought in their launch window; the rest were not.
What the data shows
Only about one link in seventy clears our strongest bar
We hold 1,768 links between wallets on Solana. Twenty-five of them score 0.9 or higher, and eight are marked confirmed. On Robinhood Chain we hold 184 links, of which three are high, twenty-two medium and one hundred and fifty-nine low. A tool that reported all 1,952 as findings would be wrong about roughly 98% of them.
Most links sit in the middle band, which is why we do not call them
1,294 of the 1,768 Solana links score between 0.5 and 0.7. A middle score is a candidate worth a look, not a conclusion. We show the band as it is instead of pushing everything over a threshold so the graph looks impressive.
The most common signal is the weakest one
A shared exit destination appears in 1,456 links and a shared funding ancestor in 1,379 — but a direct transfer between the two wallets appears in only 56. Funds from a busy market flow to the same destinations constantly, and a common funder is often just a common exchange. Breadth across tokens and a direct transfer are what separate a pattern from a habit of the market.
Twelve shared tokens that add up to nothing
Two Robinhood Chain wallets in our data share twelve tokens. That sounds damning until you look at which ones: ten established tokens including one with more than 110,000 holders, and only two bought inside a launch window. Buying a token that 110,000 other wallets hold is not coordination, it is participation. Our breadth weighting scores this link 0.55 — low.
We throw away our own links
390 Solana links carry a dismissed status because a human looked at them and judged the evidence inadequate. We would rather show a smaller graph we can defend than a larger one we cannot.
The twelve-token example, unpacked
Both wallets were read from the Robinhood Chain explorer. Token names and the freshness flag come from our recorded trade data.
Recorded overlap from our pipeline, not a chain-verified claim.
The other ten, including a token with 110,276 holders, were ordinary participation.
Qualified front-buys divided by shared tokens. 120 of our 184 Robinhood links sit below 0.4.
Ranked below the medium band because breadth, not overlap, carries the weight.
Chain-verified via the Robinhood Chain explorer. This token alone explains why overlap is a weak signal.
Solana: what our 1,768 links actually score
| Score band | Links | Share | How we treat it |
|---|---|---|---|
| below 0.5 | 122 | 7% | Shown for context only |
| 0.5 – 0.7 | 1,294 | 73% | Candidate — needs human review |
| 0.7 – 0.9 | 327 | 18% | Candidate — stronger |
| 0.9 and above | 25 | 1.4% | Treat as strong |
Status alongside these: 1,370 candidate, 390 dismissed by us, 8 confirmed.
Robinhood Chain: breadth decides, not overlap
| Distinct launch-window tokens shared | Links | Level |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 109 | low |
| 2 | 50 | low |
| 3 | 19 | medium |
| 4 | 3 | medium |
| 5 or more | 3 | high |
Of 184 links, 159 are low, 22 medium and 3 high. Every link that clears medium or better shares three or more launch-window tokens.
Which signals appear, and how often
| Signal | Links carrying it | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Shared exit destination | 1,456 | Common in a busy market |
| Shared funding ancestor | 1,379 | Often just a shared exchange |
| Front-buys | 610 | Meaningful only with a good ratio |
| Timing consistency | 449 | Regularity, not coincidence |
| Direct transfer between wallets | 56 | The hardest to explain away |
| Three or more independent signals | 403 | Where we look hardest |
Out of 1,768 Solana links. No single row here is sufficient on its own.
Limitations
- •These are the counts in our dataset on 2026-09-10; they grow as scanning continues, so the exact figures move.
- •A low score is not a statement that two wallets are unrelated — it means the evidence we hold does not support a claim either way.
- •Token overlap and freshness flags come from our recorded trade data rather than a fresh chain read; the holder count cited was chain-verified.
- •Eight links are marked confirmed, which reflects a human judgement on the evidence, not proof of common ownership.
- •Presenting a link publicly is not an accusation. Nothing here should be read as a legal conclusion.
Check it yourself
Our cluster score, the per-link evidence and the token lists are shown on the wallet report pages themselves — open any wallet, expand a link and read the evidence, including the links we score low.